Rivian's "Profits"? More Like Smoke and Mirrors for the R2 Hype Train

Okay, Rivian technically beat expectations? Give me a break. They're still losing money hand over fist, but hey, they managed to lose slightly less than predicted. That's like celebrating only getting a mild case of the plague. The stock's up 3% in extended trading? Please. It'll probably be back down by lunchtime tomorrow.

The "Gross Profit" Shell Game

This whole "gross profit" thing is a joke. A $24 million gross profit? Sounds impressive, right? Except when you dig into the numbers, it's all accounting trickery. They lost $130 million on actually building cars, but they're trying to bury that under a pile of VW joint venture money and "software and services." Software and services? What software? Are they selling ringtones for electric trucks now?

It's like saying I made a profit because I sold my old baseball card collection, even though I'm still drowning in credit card debt from buying a new boat. But hey, look at the baseball cards! Profit!

And Scaringe, bless his heart, is trotting out the usual CEO-speak about "long-term growth and value creation." Translation: "Please keep buying our stock so we don't go bankrupt before the R2 launches."

R2: Savior or Sinkhole?

Speaking of the R2... that's the supposed savior, right? The "affordable" Rivian that's going to take on Tesla and everyone else. Except it's still "on track" for the first half of next year. Translation: "We hope to maybe, possibly, get it out sometime before the end of June if everything goes perfectly, which it never does."

And Scaringe claims they're not worried about rare earth minerals from China or chips from that shady Nexperia company. Seriously? He expects us to believe that? Does he think we're all idiots? Maybe I am the idiot for even paying attention to this circus.

Rivian ended the quarter with $7.7 billion in liquidity. Sounds like a lot, until you realize how fast these companies burn through cash. It's like having a full tank of gas when you're driving a Hummer.

Oh, and they reconfirmed their guidance for the year: a massive loss and "around breakeven" gross profit, which was originally supposed to be an actual profit. Classic.

The Analyst's Take... With a Huge Caveat

I read some analyst's take on Seeking Alpha patting Rivian on the back. The guy claims to have experience on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley. He's also got a "beneficial long position" in RIVN. Meaning he's betting on the stock going up. So, offcourse, he's going to paint a rosy picture. Let's be real, I'd trust my barber's stock tips before I trust someone with a vested interest.

So, What's the Real Story?

It's a hype machine, plain and simple. Rivian's selling a dream, not a car. They're masters of distraction, shifting the focus from their ongoing losses to the potential of the R2. Maybe the R2 will be a game-changer. Maybe pigs will fly. I ain't holding my breath.